I can’t observe the sky in the real world, but the surface map, visible satellite, and webcams give me an idea what I’d think if I were there: continue west for now, then re-assess at 14:30 or so.Temperature at El Reno is 77F with a *screaming* 68F dew point, scattered clouds, and a healthy 27mph wind. I regret having to bypass Moore, for a look from I-35, but I’ve headed west on I-40. “Air you can wear.”ġ3:34CDT: In the virtual world, I’m stopped to gas up for the afternoon near El Reno,OK, make a bathroom stop, and re-assess conditions. A brisk S to SSE wind at 17mph with gusts to 31mph. My departure would be at about 9:30 a.m., with an estimated arrival at Elk City, OK of about 3 pm (a 5.5 hours drive via I-35S and I40W).Ġ853CDT: METAR at Salina: KSLN 291353Z 19015G27KT 10SM BKN020 23/19 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 15031/1307 SLP038 T02280189= Using the NAM model, I see precipitation broken out for my target area during the 18-21Z area.Ġ840CDT: If I started from a virtual base city of Salina, KS, I’d be at the waffle maker at someplace like the Days Inn Salina South reviewing these models. the Dew point, moisture convergence, and CAPE/CINH, the area from the southwest corner of Oklahoma to Weatherford, OK looks like where I’d predict a good chance to strong tornadoes. RATIONALE: Looking over RAP and NAM (WRF-NMM) models, I see 30-40kt 500mb winds over southwest Oklahoma.Ĭhecking this vs. SPC’s tornado outlook has a big sausage-shaped area (hatched!) along western Oklahoma, but where do we target within a 96,000 square mile blob?
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Posted on Author Lisa Beal Categories chase strategy, Forecasting, Logbook, Nowcasting, Observation Tags 2013 Leave a comment on 12 June 2013 – Eyes on the Chi-town Skies – Virtual Chase – Hobart(KHBR), OKĪ MOD RISK day in Oklahoma (but I’m working in Chicago), so we’ll chase virtually. On that day, the EF1 tornado in Bolingbrook, Illinois passed less than a mile south of my house. Per, A PDS (particularly dangerous situation) area has been issued to our west:Ĭertain aspects of today remind me of theĪugderecho event. Definitely, “air ya kin wear’, to use a Northern Virginia-ism.
I could always use more.)Īs the morning wore on, the air was increasingly humid. Both of the gentlemen have a great sever weather sense, and I’d be delighted if their wisdom would rub off on me.
(Frankly, I wish there was some way I could carve out time to attend either his meteorology classes or the one’s Paul Sirvatka teaches at College of DuPage. He’s generous with his knowledge and is a great natural teacher. Gilbert is a respected expert in Northern Illinois weather, and I’m glad we have him watching our area. We’ll have to watch this one carefully (as Gilbert Sebenste pointed out in my Facebook news feed). While the tornado threat has been downplayed, I feel a bit wary about the hatched 10%(+) area:Įven early in the day, the severe parameters show signs of moving ‘into the hot zone’ later today: There was also much discussion about a HIGH RISK being declared, with a focus on the severe wind and hail threats: This morning started with a MOD RISK declared for Chicago and environs: Martin Lisius (TX) – CEO, Tempest Tours (5/1)ĭAY 1: Spider lightning as a monster cold front passesĭAY 6: New Mexico Storm with Great StructureĭAY 7: 3 States of Mind: Texas, Oklahoma, KansasĭAY 11: Long Drive North and a Czech StopĬhaser/spotter fun within 300 miles of home Tempest 2013T2B Gang (minus Bill Reid, behind the camera) May 2013 chasing with Jim Reed, Bill Reid and friends SOUTHERN/GREAT PLAINS CHASES: early MAY: 3,362 miles (especially radar interpretation), first aid, and CPRģ3rd Annual FermiLab/Skilling Severe Weather Seminar
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Here is the overall plan for my 2013 storm season (which I’ll update as events warrant): CHASE 2013Ģ5+ hours of classroom training on weather